A Cognitive Examination of the Application of Artificial Intelligence in Diplomacy and International Negotiations: A Strategic Analysis Based on the Complex Systems Theory

Samiei, Mohammad

doi:10.20241403/CRPS.2510.1093.1.8.3

A Cognitive Examination of the Application of Artificial Intelligence in Diplomacy and International Negotiations: A Strategic Analysis Based on the Complex Systems Theory

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Mohammad Samiei

PhD candidate of British Studies, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

10.20241403/CRPS.2510.1093.1.8.3

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI), as one of the most transformative technologies of the twenty-first century, has assumed an increasingly significant role in enhancing the quality and effectiveness of international political negotiations through its capacity to analyze large-scale datasets, predict emerging trends, and generate evidence-based recommendations. The central research question of this study examines how the application of AI contributes to improving the effectiveness of international political negotiations and identifies the opportunities and challenges associated with its integration. Adopting an interdisciplinary approach grounded in Complex Systems Theory, this research conceptualizes the negotiation process as a dynamic, multi-actor system characterized by continuous interactions and adaptive behaviors. The study employs a documentary content analysis of authoritative sources published between 2015 and 2025, with the findings subsequently interpreted through SWOT analysis to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, as well as through a futures-oriented scenario planning approach. The results indicate that AI has the potential to enhance the predictability of stakeholders' behavior, improve the coherence of decision-making processes, and increase the speed and responsiveness of negotiations. Nevertheless, technological dependence, inadequacies in existing legal and regulatory frameworks, and the risk of reproducing data-driven biases constitute major challenges to its effective implementation. Based on these findings, the study concludes that the responsible and ethically guided adoption of AI, supported by robust regulatory institutions and internationally recognized standards, can mitigate potential risks while maximizing its strategic benefits in international political negotiations.

Keywords

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Algorithmic Bias

Cybersecurity

Smart Diplomacy

Political Negotiations

Arana-Catania, M., van Lier, F.A., & Procter, R. (2022). Supporting peace negotiations in the Yemen war through machine learning. Arxiv journal. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2207.11528

Bjola, C & Zaiotti, R. (2020). Digital Diplomacy and International Organisations: Autonomy, Legitimacy and Contestation. University of Huddersfield. Doi: 10.4324/9781003032724, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343895827_Digital_Diplomacy_and_International_Organisations_Autonomy_Legitimacy_and_Contestation

Climate Change AI. (2021). Climate Change and AI: Recommendations for Government. https://www.climatechange.ai/press_releases/2021-11-08/release

CPD Blog. (2025). Rethinking Diplomatic Negotiations in the Age of AI. https://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/blog/rethinking-diplomatic-negotiations-age-ai

Degree Doctor. (2006). Braun and Clarke Thematic Analysis - How to do the six-step process in your qualitative research project. https://www.thedegreedoctor.com/blog/braun-and-clarke-thematic-analysis-how-to-do-the-six-step-process-in-your-qualitative-research-project

Diplo. (2025). AI Diplomacy. https://www.diplomacy.edu/topics/ai-and-diplomacy/

Geneva Graduate Institute. (2025). Diplomatic Relations, Artificial Intelligence, and Cyber Threats. https://globalchallenges.ch/issue/17/diplomatic-relations-artificial-intelligence-and-cyber-threats/

Hamidreza M, Shirin Kordnoori, Mohammadmohsen Ostadrahimi, Saeed Seyed Agha Banihashemi. (2025). Applications of artificial intelligence in global diplomacy: A review of research and practical models, Sustainable Futures Journal, 9(100486), 2666-1888, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2025.100486, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666188825000565

Hermes- European Studies Center. (2025). Artificial Intelligence: Redefining Diplomacy in the Digital Age. https://www.hermescse.eu/en/artificial-intelligence-redefining-diplomacy-in-the-digital-age/

Holland, J.H. (1992). Complex adaptive systems. Daedalus, 121(1), 17–30. https://www.jstor.org/stable/20025416?seq=1

IPIS. (2023). Artificial intelligence and the future of international relations. https://www.ipis.ir/en/subjectview/722508/artificial-intelligence-and-the-future-of-international-relations

Iran’s Strategic Council of Foreign Relations. (2025). The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Redefining Diplomacy in the Digital Age. https://www.scfr.ir/en/scienceculture/344891/the-role-of-artificial-intelligence-in-redefining-diplomacy-in-the-digital-age/

Jervis, R. (1997). System effects: Complexity in political and social life. Princeton University Press. https://archive.org/details/systemeffectscom0000jerv/page/n7/mode/2up

Moshtagi, R., Cortez, J., & Sohn, A. (2025). AI and the Future of Conflict Resolution: How Can Artificial Intelligence Improve Peace Negotiations? Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School. https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/ai-and-future-conflict-resolution-how-can-artificial-intelligence-improve-peace

Pokhriyal N, Koebe T. (2023). AI-assisted diplomatic decision-making during crises-Challenges and opportunities. Front Big Data. doi: 10.3389/fdata. 2023.1183313. PMID: 37252128; PMCID: PMC10213620. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10213620/

Rosenau, J. N. (2003). Distant proximities: Dynamics beyond globalization. Princeton University Press. https://www.academia.edu/47299317/James_N_Rosenau_Distant_Proximities_Dynamics_Beyond_Globalization_2003_Princeton_University_Press_Princeton_and_Oxford_0_691_09524_8_pp_xvi_439_Paperback_

Santor, G. (2019). Artificial Intelligence: Challenges for EU Citizens and Consumers. Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies of European Commission. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2019/631043/IPOL_BRI(2019)631043_EN.pdf

SSRN. (2025). Artificial Intelligence in Conflict Resolution: A Comprehensive Review. SSRN. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5241365

Thijs Broekhuizen, Henri Dekker, Pedro de Faria, Sebastian Firk, Dinh Khoi Nguyen, Wolfgang Sofka. (2023). AI for managing open innovation: Opportunities, challenges, and a research agenda. Journal of Business Research, Volume 167, 114196, ISSN 0148-2963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2023.114196, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296323005556

UNCOVERIE. (2025). How AI Is Shaping the Future of Diplomacy. https://www.ie.edu/uncover-ie/ai-and-diplomacy-master-in-technology-and-global-affairs/

United Nations Climate Change. (2021). Glasgow Climate Change Conference – October-November 2021. https://unfccc.int/conference/glasgow-climate-change-conference-october-november-2021

University of Birmingham, Centre for AI in Government. (2025). Simulating Politics: AI Models for Negotiation and Governance. University of Birmingham. Retrieved August 2025, from https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/projects/simulating-politics

Wgi, World. (2024). How Artificial Intelligence is Reshaping International Politics. https://www.wgi.world/how-artificial-intelligence-is-reshaping-international-politics/

Zia, L., & Waks, L. (2025). Rethinking Diplomatic Negotiations in the Age of AI. USC Center on Public Diplomacy. https://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/blog/rethinking-diplomatic-negotiations-age-ai